I’m convinced local models will absolutely demolish the commercial ones eventually as they get better and better.
Why?
Despite what people want, it is increasingly obvious this isn’t going to go away; wishing it would very very hard won’t make this happen
Local models are rapidly improving and almost as good as the commercial ones
One may complain about it being slop but most commercial code is slop. They basically hire horribly-paid temporary contractors; LLMs are not worse than them, because $30 an hour gets you a shitty and desperate programmer, and that’s what many companies are often willing to pay for projects that aren’t critical (or depressingly, sometimes ones that are). Commercial companies are who’s going to be using local models, to replace these awful contractors and H-1B slaves.
The costs upfront are much more but the long-term costs after are low
Not having to pay rent to OpenAI or Anthropic is appealing especially given the strategy is obviously to create dependence on them
You can run your local models in a few cabinets for a whole company; no lake-draining required, no token limits
You don’t gotta like it (yes, tech is going to have a competency crisis years from now) but this is what’s already starting to happen.